What Bangladesh-Pakistan direct sea trade link means for regional geopolitics

A cargo vessel from Karachi recently docked at Bangladesh’s Chittagong port, marking a step forward in Dhaka’s trade relations with Pakistan, a country it had attained independence from in 1971. It was the first-ever direct maritime trade connection between Pakistan and Bangladesh in 53 years since the war of liberation.
For Pakistan, it was a breakthrough in the complex diplomatic ties between the two nations, especially after the ouster of Sheikh Hasina and a regime change in Bangladesh. In October, the new Bangladesh government, led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, scrapped the mandatory physical inspection of imports from Pakistan. In his meeting with Pakistan prime minister Shehbaz Sharif at the UN General Assembly in New York in September, Yunus had stressed on the need to revitalise bilateral cooperation.
The development will be closely watched by the Indian government. Some Indian observers believe the end of physical inspection of Pakistani goods reaching Bangladesh increases the risk of contraband goods entering the neighbouring nation unchecked. This comes at a time when the law and order situation under the Yunus regime is being questioned since religious minorities in Bangladesh are facing growing persecution.
To put the Indian scepticism in context, one must refer to the 2004 arms haul in Chittagong. At that time, around 1,500 boxes of Chinese ammunitions, worth an estimated $4.5-7 million, were confiscated by the authorities on reaching the port in trawlers. They were allegedly meant for the banned militant outfit ULFA (United Liberation Front of Asom). The consignment was allegedly masterminded by Pakistan’s intelligence agency, the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), and till date remains the biggest confiscation of contraband arms in South Asia.
Since then, the Indian establishment has been wary of the sea channels connecting the Chittagong and Mongla ports and used its strong ties with the previous Hasina government to keep Chinese influence off the two ports.
“Last year, India scored a strategic win over China by securing the operating rights to a terminal at Mongla port… But now, Pakistan has gained access to Chittagong port. The sea channels to the two ports will now allow Pakistani vessels. The development will surely have an impact on the region’s geopolitics as Myanmar is also so close to Chittagong,” said a former Indian military officer, who did not wish to be named.
With the exit of Hasina from power, India’s apprehensions have grown. As it appears, they weren’t all baseless. Exiled Bangladeshi blogger Asad Noor—critical of both the Hasina and Yunus governments—has claimed that munitions are freely available in the country today, and hence expressed concern over the trade development between Dhaka and Islamabad.
However, Didarul Bhuiyan, a Bangladeshi politician and member of the think-tank Rashtrachinta, which was one of the entities behind strategising the July-August political upheaval in the country, considers it a welcome step. “Business is business. Otherwise, we will have to close business relations with India as well, as they have been more against the people of Bangladesh,” Bhuiyan told INDIA TODAY.
The modest trade volume between Bangladesh and Pakistan fell further in 2023 to below $800 million. The Yunus government will hope to see this improve with the maritime connection with Pakistan. And so will Islamabad. As Syed Ahmed Maroof, Pakistani high commissioner to Bangladesh, who was present at the time of the docking of the cargo ship with over 300 containers at the Chittagong port, said: “This new route will streamline supply chains, reduce transit time and open up new business opportunities for both countries.”
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